! APMonitor Modeling Language
!
! Data from New York for the years 1947-1965
! Data from Bangkok for the years 1975-1984
! Data from London is 1944-1966?
!
Model disease
Parameters
! population size (individuals)
N = 3.2e6
! birth rate (births/biweek/total population)
mu = 7.8e-4
! recovery rate (recoveries/biweek/infectives)
gamma = 0.07
! reporting fraction to account for underreporting
rep_frac = 0.45
! cases reported (new individuals infected per biweek)
cases = 180, >= 0
End Parameters
Variables
! transmission parameter (potentially infectious contacts/biweek)
beta = 10
! susceptibles (individuals in the total population)
S = 0.06*N, >= 0, <= N
! infectives (individuals infected)
I = 0.0001*N, >= 0, <= N
End Variables
Intermediates
! infection rate per biweek
R = beta * S * I / N
End Intermediates
Equations
$S = -R + mu * N
$I = R - gamma * I
cases = rep_frac * R
End Equations
End Model